Sammy's Picks for UFC Vegas 28
Claudio Puelles vs Jordan Leavitt
I’m going with the favorite Leavitt at -210 for this one. I’ve been very impressed with his grappling in his fight at the contender series and his UFC debut. Puelles is also a grappler but I feel Jordan’s top control, grappling intelligence, and submission defense will be too much for Claudio to be offensive off of his back.
Youssef Zalal vs Sean Woodson
I’m leaning with the favorite Woodson at -182. I think this is a good matchup for Sean with big height and reach advantage. Sean’s jab is going to make it tough for Zalal to get inside. Zalal is tough with good footwork and hasn’t shown fight-ending power so I like the odds of this going the distance. You could make betting on Sean juicy by taking him by decision for +138. If you wanted to hedge on this fight you could take over 2.5 rounds for -250.
Francisco Trinaldo vs Muslim Salikhov
This is a tough one but I’m going with the favorite Salikhov at -250. I think Salikhov’s striking and defensive grappling will be enough to get the W. Trinaldo is coming up from 155lbs and is 42 years old so father time will touch him eventually. Trinaldo at +195 is not bad at all being 16-6 in the UFC and is arguably on a 5-fight win streak. This is a great fight for the degenerates who like making multiple parlays with different outcomes. I got one with Salikhov moneyline at -250 and another with Salikhov decision for +175. If you’re a single parlay type of guy you might want to avoid this one.
Makwan Amirkhani vs Kamuela Kirk
I have to go with the favorite Amirkhani at -230. Kirk is taking this fight on about a weeks’ notice and making his debut, so he has a tall task in front of him. Makwan has the edge in experience with high-level competition and in grappling. Makwan by submission for +145 isn’t a bad idea, I also like the under 2.5 rounds for -115 to ensure the chance of Kirk stopping Makwan.
Roman Dolidze vs Laureano Staropoli
I think Dolidze at -150 is a steal. This is a fight at 185lbs where Dolidze has fought at 205lbs most of his career and Staropoli is coming up from 170lbs with less than a weeks’ notice. I think there will be a big strength advantage for Roman that will make the grappling much easier for him. For Staropoli to do some real damage he will have to use long combinations but that just leaves him open for takedowns.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Augusto Sakai
I’m going with the slight underdog in Sakai at -104. Just from comparing both guys' last couple of fights, I feel like Rozenstruik is lacking confidence which is showing up in his volume. Most of his wins are more of the older guys of the division. Sakai has the size advantage and the more well-rounded skill set. I feel he’s going to use his grappling and clinch work to create openings for his striking to get a decision or a late TKO. I like the over 1.5 rounds for -175 as well.
My locks for the weekend Dolidze, Leavitt, and Sakai parlayed together for +387. Hopefully, the MMA Gods bless us with a little bit of luck for our pockets. Bet smart and enjoy the fights this weekend!