UFC 260: Miocic vs N'Gannou - The Betting Guide
What’s up friends and fight fans. It’s Keith, back to help you stack some bread this Saturday with UFC 260. Maybe I’m a fool, but with this card and the odds attached it almost feels like Vegas wants us to make money. As always, tail me or fade but do it responsibly.
Sean O’Malley vs Thomas Almeida
Sean O Malley is a very bad matchup for Thomas Almeida. Almeida’s last three fights have all been losses, not to mention he’s only taken 5 fights over the past 5 years. He’s too inactive to succeed in the UFC. Sean O’Malley fought three times in 2020 alone and won two of them. He has a unique style and moves fluidly around the octagon. He often uses moves that are fun for fans to watch, and goes for head kicks and powerful over hands a lot. His reach is longer, he has extreme power for a bantamweight, and is statistically more accurate than Almeida. Almeida stands still but moves his head a lot, which doesn’t bode well when you fight a sniper like Sean O’Malley. O’Malley is going to put Almeida to sleep very early. This fight feels like it’s set up for the highly entertaining O’Malley to become a household name by getting a W against a sub par opponent. Since he’s the clear favorite at -320, a money line bet isn’t super profitable. Instead, I’m taking Suga Sean O’Malley by KO in the first round.
Tyron Woodley vs Vicente Luque
Tyron Woodley seems to be down and out. Past three years he’s been getting dominated, having lost his last 15 rounds of professional fighting. He’s fought the same way his entire career and Vicente Luque knows that. He always backs into the cage and looks to draw opponents in so he can hit them with heavy punches. However, Woodley has said he’s changing his fighting style and he has a lot to lose. If this is true then he has a chance to come out and surprise Luque. I’m willing to take the chance that, with everything on the line, Woodley will use his wrestling advantage on Luque to find a way to win. I’m not confident in him but I’ll take him in hopes he wants to save his career. The money line is at +215 for a Tyron Woodley win, so I’m going to take him straight up.
Stipe Miocic vs Francis N'gannou
The world heavyweight championship. Francis is gonna sit back more than the last time they fought. Last time they fought, he went crazy and ran right at Stipe and Stipe just slipped with his head and counter punched. He also used Francis’s sloppiness, poor body control, and aggression to his advantage by taking him to the ground a few times. Francis has gotten much better at takedown defense so this fight will occur mostly on foot in the first few rounds. The later rounds are when Francis needs to worry. At that point his poor late round cardio will hurt him and if the fight goes that long, Stipe will expose that. My prediction is that Stipe Miocic will find a way to win as he always has, either by catching Francis Ngannou with a nasty punch for KO, or dominating him again via wrestling for a decision win. He’s the underdog in this fight somehow even after proving his GOAT status. Currently, the ML is even for Stipe Miocic and I absolutely love it.
The Betting Guide
Just to review, I’m taking O’Malley for a KO, Woodley ML, and Miocic ML. The biggest parlay I’ll be taking will be O’Malley and Stipe Miocic to win by any method, because I have the most confidence in them, and I’ll also be adding Jamie Mullarkey (+110) for his heavy striking and ability to control the top while wrestling, and Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-235) because anyone related to Khabib has champions blood. Also, he’s bouncing back off a bad loss and against Jared Gooden he feels like a solid pick.
Tail me or fade me, I hope things go your way. Make sure to check out our UFC betting podcast on YouTube where I further break down my picks. Also, for pure analysis, check out our boy Sammy’s breakdowns of the fight. Keep coming back to Russos Playbook and I’ll continue supplying you with winners.