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  • Sammy Mattaliano

UFC 263 Betting Guide

Pannie Kianzad vs Alexa Davis

I have to go with the favorite Kianzad at -205. Riding a 3-fight win streak over tough grappler Sijara Eubanks, former title challenger Bethe Correia, and Jessica-Rose Clark. I feel Pannie has youth and the more well-rounded skillset over Davis. Pannie will have a significant striking advantage and has good enough defensive grappling to neutralize Davis. You could juice the bet with Pannie decision for -134 or hedge with over 2.5 rounds at -360. A great choice to throw into a parlay.

Hawkeem Dawodu vs Movsar Eloev

I got to lean with the favorite Eloev at -240. A very competitive fight but I feel the Russian has showed more dominance as of late. Dawodu is 5-0 but I feel has edged out some fights by the skin of his teeth. It’s very even on the fight but Eloev will have the grappling advantage and will easily use it. I’m going a little riskier with Eloev by decision at -110. With how these two matchup on the feet I’m very confident this will go to a decision, I think over 2.5 rounds at -265 would be a great leg to any parlay.

Drew Dober vs Brad Riddell

I’m going with the slight underdog Riddell at +125. I think this is a fight that will mostly play out on the feet, while Dober has the firepower, Riddell has a sizeable technical advantage. I think Brad has more tools, movement, and better defense to edge out a decision over Dober. I’m going with the money line but Riddell decision at +260 is looking mighty juicy.

Paul Craig vs Jamahal Hill

I’m leaning with the favorite Hill at -286. I think the speed, power, and precision will get Craig out of there. I’m loving the prop bets for this fight, with this being a bad blood matchup I’m very confident in no decision at -278. Pick your poison, Hill TKO at -125 or Craig finish at +330. Craig does have the ground game to get a submission or ground and pound TKO against an untested ground game of Hill.

Demian Maia vs Belal Muhammad

I got to go with the favorite Belal at -245. Although Maia has some of the best BJJ in the sport I don’t see him being able to get it to the floor. The boxing, leg kicks, footwork, and fear of the grappling will cause Belal to take his time and be intelligent. There’s an obvious blueprint to beat Maia, add in the fact that he’s 43 years old it makes me very confident in Belal. If you wanted to add some extra oomph on your bet, you could take Belal decision at +110 but it’s risky because we don’t know where Maia’s chin is at coming off a knockout loss to Gilbert Burns.

Nate Diaz vs Leon Edwards

As much as it pains me to say I must go with the heavy favorite Leon at -560. Nate Diaz has proven he can’t compete with the elite at 170lbs, the Jorge Masvidal, Dong Hyun Kim, and Rory MacDonald fights have showed that Nate doesn’t have the power and strength to hang out in the top 5 at welterweight. Leon’s bigger, quicker, more accurate, and has a bigger toolbox. Obvisouly the money line is a secure leg in your parlay. I do feel there’s a good chance Leon gets Nate out of there with his kicks so Leon TKO at +100 isn’t bad. If you wanted to hedge for a hail mary Diaz submission you could do under 4.5 rounds at -134.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno

I’ve been going back and forth on this all week now, I’m surprisingly leaning with the underdog Moreno at +165. His composure all this week has really impressed me I feel he will carry this into his fight. I think he will adjust in his grappling to tire out the champion. Deiveson made weight at the literal last minute of the weigh ins Friday so I’m going to assume it didn’t go as easy as the champion hoped which will be a factor the longer this fight goes on. It wouldn’t be a bad Idea to put some money on Figueiredo finish at +135 as he is such a terminator, but my mind has changed the past couple of days leading up to the fight.

Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori

I have to go with the champion Israel at -278. I think the champion is about to set a reminder at 185lbs. I have too much confidence in the skillset and the level competition Adesanya has faced. Will Marvin get a few takedowns? Yes, but Israel has a 6” reach advantage that he will use tremendously to make Marvin pay every time he closes distances to grapple. I see Israel getting the late TKO or unanimous decision, you could go crazy with some winning method bets for Israel but I’m going to play it safe with the money line. An insurance parlay with Vettori decision at +375 would be a good back up in case he surprises us.

I’m going with Adesanya, Edwards, Eloev, and Riddell parlayed together for +412. Enjoy this block buster PPV tonight, we’re going to be in for some magic. Please bet responsibly and may god have mercy on our betting souls.

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