UFC on ABC 2: Vettori vs Holland Betting Guide
"Hate it or Love it; The Underdog's on Top." - Curtis Jackson aka 50 Cent
Last week, we went 3-2 with some solid picks at UFC 260. I’m feeling even better about this upcoming weekend. If you’ve been following my blogs here, you’ve heard me say it before.
I Love The Underdog
Well, this Saturday at 3 pm, we’ve got UFC on ABC 2: Vettori vs Holland. Boy oh boy is it gonna be a great day for the underdogs. I’m gonna cut right to the chase:
There is a huge opportunity for massive amounts of bread to be stacked with this card.
Some of these picks will be risky. As always, tail me or fade me. Just make sure you do it responsibly. Let’s dive in.
Daniel Rodriguez (-160) vs Mike Perry (+140)
This is the first fight of the main card. We’re seeing a highly motivated Mike Perry step into the octagon on Saturday. The man has already called out Darren Till, who seems to have a target on his back from everyone in the Welterweight Division. On paper, Rodriguez is the better fighter; but both guys have knock out power. I’m taking some risky picks here which are definitely not locks by any means. I’ll be going with Mike Perry at +140. Also, hoping for a huge early KO or sub by either fighter. I’ll be taking Under 1.5 rounds at +170.
Mackenzie Dern (+115) vs Nina Ansaroff (-140)
This is another tough fight to pick. The biggest reason being Nina Ansaroff’s unpredictability. She’s been pretty inactive in the UFC and hasn’t fought since June 2019, & lost that fight via decision. Despite that, there’s one major reason you cannot count her out. She is married to the greatest female UFC fighter of all time, Amanda Nunes. They also train together. There is no doubt that Ansaroff is looking to follow up Nunes’ big victory at UFC 259 with a W of her own.
Mackenzie Dern will do everything in her power to prevent that. She’s on a 3 fight win streak that doesn’t show signs of stopping. Ansaroff is slippery when it comes to grappling and can be tough to take down, but once she’s on the mat she’s in trouble. Mackenzie Dern is great at getting opponents to the ground & her last two wins came by submission. I think she’ll get another one on Saturday, or at least control the ground long enough to win by decision. I’m taking Dern (+115). Another underdog, and a very solid pick.
Julian Marquez (-200) vs Sam Alvey (+160)
Sam Alvey is so sloppy. He went on a five loss streak in the light heavyweight division, so he decided to move back down to middleweight. He absolutely needs a win here because his spot on the UFC roster is in jeopardy. He was pretty successful his first time in the middleweight division before moving up, with a record of 8-5 there. The decision to move up in weight classes was a bad one for Alvey, as he looked way more comfortable at 185 lbs than 205 lbs. Julian Marquez can be just as sloppy as Alvey at times, so I don’t think he comes out and dominates. I’m going with Sam Alvey (+160), as he’s a better fighter when lighter, and should be highly motivated to keep his roster spot with a W.
Sodiq Yusuf (-140) vs Arnold Allen (+115)
Sodiq Yusuf is a very good striker. He loves to hit guys with heavy hooks and strong looping punches. He’s also got some incredible kicking power. Arnold Allen is a grappler by nature, with a pretty solid chin that can absorb damage. Allen does have a punch of choice though, which he uses very intelligently. It’s a simple straight punch right to the face, often slipped in while his opponents go for heavy, telegraphed shots. This matches up well against Yusuf as he loves those kinds of moves. He’s going to take some wild punches against Allen who will counter them easily with his straights. Yusuf has a weak chin and won’t be able to withstand many of these. Once Allen has Yusuf stunned, he’ll take him to the ground and expose the holes in Yusuf’s ground game. After that, it’s up to Arnold Allen what he wants to do with Sodiq Yusuf. Going with Arnold Allen (+155).
The Main Event
Marvin Vettori (-325) vs Kevin Holland (+250)
Main event time. What a mismatch. Marvin Vettori was scheduled to fight Darren Till, a very legitimate contender, and previous belt challenger. He may have given Vettori a bit of a challenge, but had to step out at the last minute due to injury. In walks Kevin Holland, coming off a pathetic loss three weeks ago to Derek Brunson. Kudos to him for stepping up to fight, but there aren’t many foreseeable futures in which Holland comes out of this victorious.
He got smothered on the mat by Brunson the entire fight & was begging Khabib, who was sitting in the audience, for wrestling advice the entire time. Holland didn’t even attempt to get up at some points, mentally losing the fight before it was over. All he did was talk and joke while getting dominated. Three weeks isn’t enough time for him to get better at grappling and wrestling. Vettori, on the other hand, has been training takedowns and ground game his entire camp in preparation for Darren Till, another guy who isn’t great on the ground. This works very well for Vettori, as he won’t have to change his strategy much. He’ll attack Holland the same way he would’ve Till, taking the fight to the ground and looking for a submission.
With all this being said, Holland does have a very solid chin and if he can find a way to stay on his feet, he can survive this bout, and maybe even land some punches on Vettori. He’s also shown that he’s slippery enough to escape submissions. I think the biggest difference between the fighters is mindset. Marvin Vettori wants to come for Israel Adesanya’s belt. Kevin Holland has said he wants to be the co-main event champion. He simply doesn’t have the mental drive, whereas Vettori sees Holland as another little obstacle on his way to gold. Marvin Vettori at -325 is parlay material. I’d rather take Marvin Vettori to win via submission, which is currently at +200. This isn’t a lock either, as Holland could surprise everyone, or Vettori simply puts him to sleep with punches. It just feels like the best play. Upsets do happen, and Holland would be the only underdog I’m betting against Saturday. Part of me wants to take Holland straight up at +250, as this is fighting and anything can happen; that’ll be a game time decision based on gut feeling alone.
The best parlay I’ll be taking Saturday: Marvin Vettori (-325) and Mackenzie Dern (+115) to pay out +181.
Four of the five fights I picked were underdogs. Let’s enjoy some afternoon fights this weekend. It’s a rare occasion we get to day drink and watch UFC, and it isn’t even pay per view. Tune in on ABC at 3 pm for the action. Let’s hope things go our way, and our underdogs perform, so we can celebrate with our winnings Saturday night.